The Formula for Democratic Victories

The ground shook Tuesday in Washington, thanks to an election that was hundreds of miles away. Republican Roy Moore lost the Senate race in Alabama, in an absolute shock to our political system. The truth is that a Democrat should almost never be able to win in Alabama, but this was the exception. Roy Moore was accused of pedophilia, and that was enough to drive him to defeat, even in Alabama.

Do not kid yourself- this was as close as it gets. Democrat Doug Jones was elected to the U.S. Senate by under 21,000 votes (at last look), despite the horrible accusations against Moore. Moore was a weak candidate by Alabama standards, a former judge who won his last race for Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court by a 52–48% margin, which had been the closest statewide race Alabama had seen in over a decade before this one. Even so, the horrible accusations against Roy Moore were only enough to pull him down by 4% from his last race. That’s a flip of one of every twenty-five people.

Even so, Democrats should take heart in a lot of things that came out of Doug Jones’ victory. Jones, and his coalition, were the perfect ideal for Democratic victories. Three things in specific happened to achieve this victory. The first, and biggest piece of why Jones won, was an increased African-American turnout. African-Americans, especially African-American women, are the base of the Democratic Party, and they came through huge, again. Second, just enough of the suburban, college educated white population came to the Democratic side. No one is confusing the college-educated white vote in Alabama for liberal and suddenly becoming a bunch of socialists, but Trump’s fall from 71% in the 2016 Election to just below 50% in exit polls in Alabama on Tuesday suggests that these folks moving away just enough for Democrats to win in 2018. Third, Democrats effectively made the argument to down-scale white voters, particularly non-college educated voters, that Roy Moore did not represent them well, and they showed up at a lower level than they did in 2016. There is no doubt that a completely reprehensible pig like Roy Moore played a huge part in all three of these things happening. Jones deserves some credit though. African-American voters viewed him as credible for his record on Civil Rights, while the white college educated voters around Tuscaloosa, Auburn, and in suburban areas of the state gave him a much better showing than Hillary Clinton got in the state last year.

Democratic statewide tickets this year were balanced both demographically and ideologically. Phil Murphy and Sheila Oliver in New Jersey are both solidly progressives, and yet solidly members of the state’s establishment- Murphy was President Obama’s Ambassador to Germany and Oliver was the former Speaker of the Assembly. Ralph Northam, Justin Fairfax, and Mark Herring all took solidly liberal positions on climate change, the minimum wage, and marriage equality, but had establishment chops that gave them credibility- Northam as Lieutenant Governor, Fairfax in President Obama’s DOJ, and Herring as the sitting Attorney General. Doug Jones was understandably more moderate on a number of issues to run in Alabama, but his time as a U.S. Attorney ended up being the strongest selling point to the Democratic base. This year’s statewide candidates ran as solid Democrats for their states, but they also didn’t run as wild-eyed outsiders.

Democrats need to take the right lessons out of these elections. Americans are not ready to embrace us fighting a new revolution, but they are ready for us to represent the states and districts we are running in, and to lead based on our values and convictions. If we can continue to sell this version of the Democratic Party, and embrace the political values of our actual base, 2018 will be a very good year for Democrats.

Why Roy Moore Will Probably Win

The Alabama Senate race is the hottest political story in the country right now. Roy Moore was a lightning-rod of a candidate even before the accusations of child molestation became public, and is even more so now. He was twice removed from the Alabama Supreme Court for refusing to follow the law, as handed down from the Federal judiciary. He won his last race, in dark-red Alabama, 52-48%. His opponent, Doug Jones, is a former federal prosecutor who prosecuted the KKK for church bombings. The race is very compelling.

The race is very, very close. RCP shows Jones up by .8%. Huffington Post shows new polls putting Moore back ahead. It's clear that this isn't a normal Republican runaway in Alabama. It is likely to be more like Moore's tight 2012 win for Supreme Court. But- is he really going to lose?

The first thing you need to consider is the demographics. You should expect the African-American share of the Alabama electorate to at least hit 20%. Democrats want that number to be more in the 25-30% range. They also want Doug Jones to get at least 90% of that vote. Let's give them best case- Jones gets 90% of 30%- or 27% of the votes.

If Jones gets that, he will still need a chunk of white votes. He would need a bit more than 33% of the remaining 70% in this scenario. Barack Obama got 15% in 2012. Now, Jones is white, there is a Trump backlash, and his profile as a federal prosecutor isn't bad for this state- but is he going to more than double the Obama vote in Alabama? He was appointed by a Democratic President (Bill Clinton) and he is pro-choice- both of which should hurt him with Alabama white voters. It is possible that he will get just enough votes to win. It's not likely though.

To be clear, the accusations of child rape against Roy Moore have been public for several weeks now- everyone has heard them. Everyone in Alabama who might vote has heard the accusations now, and has had time to digest them. They clearly hurt Roy Moore's standing. He was solidly ahead before- the race is a coin-flip in the polls now. People are saying they are not voting for him now, but they are not saying they are voting for Jones either- at least not enough. Jones is not polling at 50% with any consistency, let alone on the average. If this seems familiar, it's essentially exactly where Hillary Clinton was after the "Access Hollywood" tapes in 2016- some people won't say they are voting for the disgraced Republican, but they haven't switched sides either.

Jones is essentially averaging 47% in the polls. Moore's 2012 opponent got 48%. It appears, from a distance admittedly, that the child rape accusations against Moore have consolidated all of the anti-Moore vote under Jones. If Jones is going to win, this means he will need something different to push him across the line. The accusations currently leveled against Moore aren't going to push Jones up to 50% on their own.

This doesn't mean Moore has won- in fact, there's still a huge variable in this equation called turnout. Could Moore's brand of crazy, combined with the disgrace he is causing the state, and combined with some anti-Trump feeling, push down Republican turnout? Yes it could. Again though, we are working off the best case scenario for Democrats above, African-American turnout surging to 30% of the total electorate- that is not a given. In fact, there are reports that Jones is having trouble motivating African-Americans. If that is the case, he can't win, period. African-American turnout at 20% would mean he has to get 40% of the white vote in Alabama to win this election. I'm sorry, that won't happen. Jones has to win the turnout battle to win this election, under any scenario, even if we are assuming Moore is being hurt already by the accusations against him.

This shocks a lot of people- how can this monster win? If he does, it will force us to confront a lot of ugly truths about the electorate. That's for a different article though. What I think we have to understand now is that a large segment of the population isn't moved by scandals in the press anymore, at least if those scandals are about their own party. Perhaps this is because of organized efforts to discredit the media, perhaps it's about just pure tribalism. I don't know. The reality is that it's more likely than not that Roy Moore will once again defy the media and play the victim card to victory.

The GOP Loses it's Damn Mind

If this is what winning looks like, sign up for losing. Following an eight year period that famously featured over 1,000 Republican pick-ups across every level of government, we are seeing what the end result is- a tax scam, Roy Moore, Jeff Sessions, and the Russian investigation. Perhaps winning contributes to mental disorders?

The tax bill is one of the more awful and grotesque pieces of legislation in a long time. In the name of cutting corporate taxes and lowering the upper level tax brackets, the GOP is willing to raise taxes on the poor and middle class, especially for people who live in high tax states- by eliminating the state and local tax credit. For millions of Americans, this is not tax reform, but a tax increase. The bill is so bad that they re-wrote the budget bill for 2018 to allow for $1.5 trillion in deficits- all caused by the tax bill. This bill was a failure by any measure, but yesterday they made it worse- now they are going to take away health insurance from 13 million people by eliminating the individual mandate in the Affordable Care Act. The chaos that they will introduce into the health care market from this action will cause insurers to spike rates and make health care unaffordable for millions- including many not on "Obamacare" plans.

But if the tax bill is a joke, Roy Moore is a tragedy- he is the next logical step in the GOP's devolution after Trump. Here is a man who rejects modernity in all forms, in favor of Christian fundamentalist law and a return to a past that never actually existed- but that's not the worst thing about him. As a 30-something year old man, Moore was being banned from malls for pursuing teenage girls. His colleagues said it was "common knowledge" that he dated high school girls. Several accusers have come forward to accuse him of sexual assaults. To the credit of most of the national GOP leadership, they have called on him to just go away now- but that is not the unanimous Republican position. Breitbart has reporters down in Alabama trying to "discredit" the accusers. The Alabama GOP is defiantly threatening to bar anyone from the ballot who challenges Moore. Steve Bannon is sticking with his man. Over a third of Alabama voters are saying this scandal makes them more likely to vote for this man- I assume because he's the victim of "outsiders" trying to smear him, like the media, who "always lie." Even now, the GOP is trying to figure out a way around this man that their voters picked, rather than simply letting the public have their vote on December 5th. I guess accountability isn't a thing here.

Then there is Jeff Sessions, the sitting Attorney General of the United States, who put on a performance yesterday in a Congressional hearing that made it look like he needs mental help. He "can't recall" much of anything. Even though some of his answers to questions about the Russia probe have changed, he swears he's telling the truth- every time. He "doesn't remember" meetings with now convicted senior aides to the Trump campaign, aides that he seems to have had actual relationships to. He admitted under oath to not having a single African-American on his senior staff at the Department of Justice, and having just one African-American as a U.S. Attorney- anywhere in the country. It was a performance fit for an idiot- not an Attorney General.

Now we learn that Donald Trump Jr. was working with Wikileaks in the Fall of 2016. Putting aside everything else, a Presidential campaign was working with hackers- something that seems a little unsettling on the surface. When we realize that Wikileaks is perfectly happy to work with Russia (and that our intelligence agencies had said so weeks earlier), this becomes completely horrifying. It is increasingly clear that members of the Trump team worked with Russia to alter our election. There is a conviction, a rather large investigation by a special prosecutor, and ongoing questioning of his senior aides. The President of the United States remains under the cloud of allegations of Russian support a full year after his election. It seems like a spy novel.

This is what "winning" looks like for the Republican Party. I'm thinking the public may be tired of winning now.