A Story About a Committed Local Democrat, and an Operation That Insured Wins

Things were honestly a mess. There was lots of infighting, of which I was somewhat guilty too. We were at a local Democratic Executive Board meeting in Allentown, and Murat Guzel made a pronouncement- his priority, moving forward, was victory in both County Executive races, and the Allentown Mayoral race. The next day he summoned those of us involved to his office and put together a plan to coordinate our ticket, across county lines, at all levels of the ballot, to turn out our vote and win. He didn't just put resources behind it- he actually got out on the ground and knocked doors with the candidates and checked in on his work. He hired myself and Celeste Dee (of Advantage PEP) to do the management, and Josh Siegel (former Allentown Mayoral candidate) to be the field director. The order was to work with the whole ticket, to make sure any candidate that wanted to be a part of the effort was.

In Lehigh County, the main issue was coordinating across different level races, and getting out a county wide mailer to go with all of the district and local level ones. In Northampton County, it was literally just to cobble together a ground effort to turn out the voters we needed. Everything from running canvasses across several organizations, on down to making sure yard signs got out on the roads was a part of the task. Were there fights? Yes. Were there turf wars? Yes. Were there hard feelings? That goes without saying. The job got done though. The resources were there, pooled together from all levels of the ticket, and we mostly were able to silo off parts of the turnout operation to those best equipped to do it.

People can pontificate and grumble about who and what they didn't like, but let's look at the end results- a historic margin and turnout in Northampton County for Lamont McClure and the four council candidates entering with him, a shocking 5% win for Phil Armstrong in Lehigh County, and victories in townships like North Whitehall, Lower Saucon, South Whitehall, Palmer, Bethlehem Township, Upper Milford, and even Bangor. Winning is good, and while we certainly had a more favorable condition on the ground this year than last year, catching that wave and winning some of the tight races in these municipalities and counties takes organization.

Murat's model is one that should be copied and replicated in other places- it was inclusive and not restrictive to any of the partners involved. You could very equally apply credit to local Democratic Party clubs and candidates for what we did, to progressive groups and labor unions alike. Everybody played a part, and the labor was split up reasonably to make sure everyone could get it done. Republican strongholds were falling because Democrats were organized and did useful stuff. It was a well put together plan.

Everyone should thank him when you see him. We need to start thinking this way in the long term.

"But We Changed Politics".... No, You Didn't

One of the wrong lessons that is going to be learned from this year's elections is that we somehow changed American politics- we did not. Democrats had a good election, and won a lot of seats back in local and state governments that they had been losing for the past eight or so years, but Democrats did not change politics. That can be really confusing and upsetting for people, particularly after the tumult of the past year- how can the existence of large scale marches and protests against the President, pre-dating an electoral victory for the opposition party, not mark a massive political change? How can you claim that the victory is not a result of all the new stuff that happened?

I'm going to stick locally here again for this article, to make a point that this was more of a solid shift than a political earthquake. I'll start with Lehigh County, where 46,831 people voted for County Executive. In 2013, 45,275 people voted for County Executive. Tom Muller got 23,413 votes, good for 51.71% of the vote on his way to victory. Phil Armstrong got 24,675 votes, good for 52.69% of the vote. Yes, turnout went up a little under 1,600 votes, and Phil got a little more than 1,200 more votes than Tom did. It's also true that Brad Osborne got more votes than Scott Ott though too. What Democrats did very well was they motivated a few more voters to turn out than they did a year ago- but not in such massive, ground-breaking numbers that we start talking differently about American politics. Call it a nice, healthy bump. Don't give it too much more credit than that.

Of course, there are some claiming that I am wrong. They say that my analysis of what happened on Tuesday was "not an inclusive list." I am talking about a certain new County Commissioner, one who ran a very different campaign than Armstrong, and to her credit, made history on Tuesday night. She ran a very grassroots driven campaign, and had lots and lots of events. She did not coordinate mailers with the rest of the ticket, and instead did her own, and largely ran her own Get-Out-The-Vote that mostly ignored the top of the ticket. She did a fine job, and deserves to be happy with her campaign, but did she break some new ground? No. She got 15 more votes than Phil in her district. That is, of course, a negligible difference. She got 108 more votes than the previous holder of that district seat, who ran un-opposed and without a major mayoral race four years ago. I guess it would be fair to say that she did a fine job, but we didn't wake up in a whole new world on Wednesday in that County Commissioner District. Perhaps for all the differences in tactics and message, the reality is that Democratic performance was virtually identical.

Let's move over to Northampton County for a moment, a place that Donald Trump won in 2016, but Democrats dominated in 2017. Did the world change here? Well, numbers definitely improved. A whopping 46,463 voters turned out in this election, compared to a paltry 39,029 votes in 2013. A difference of 7,434 is significant. John Callahan got 17,675 votes in that race, falling to Republican John Brown's 18,969 in that race. Lamont McClure rolled up 22,477, an increase of 4,802 over 2013. Brown saw an increase in his vote as well, getting 19,278, an increase of 309 votes. It would be fair to suggest turnout moved substantially in this race. This race was far more contentious than the 2013 race, and this time the candidates engaged each other in negative campaigning. This election also was held one year after Trump carried the county. Can we say that this is a "change" election?

It might be tempting to, but hang on. Turnout in 2015, the county's "mid-term" year was 41,288- a number that makes a little more sense than the 2013 numbers, comparable to 2017. Still though, the bounce seems to be a bit large- so what was different? A write-in race in Bethlehem, for one thing, probably helped turnout in both counties- especially when compared to the non-competitive general elections of 2013 and 2015 in the city. Turnout approached the 25% mark in much of Palmer Township, which had a very competitive election for Supervisor- something it did not have in 2013 or 2015. Turnout was very high throughout the Nazareth area, and the Democrats rolled in Nazareth and Upper Nazareth- precisely where Gracedale, and the entire ruckus about the prison was going on. Bethlehem Township had campaigns. Wilson, Bangor, Nazareth, and other boroughs have campaigns. Again here, there was a very animated campaign for Executive going on. These numbers are more reminiscent of the 2005 race, a year in which John Stoffa won 21,288 to 19,218- and also a year in which Democrats came out in force after a Presidential election loss. In other words, while this was a new high in turnout, we can find a similar election, and plenty of reasons for the high turnout.

None of this is to say that there were not some new methods that were tried this year that were good. None of this is to say that Democrats didn't do a really damn good job on turnout- we very clearly did. We do need to apply them to the future. What we cannot do though is start to think that the future is made for us looking forward to 2018. Senator Casey and Governor Wolf both ran virtually 50-50 in the 15th Congressional District. Nothing in these results suggests that Democrats can nominate someone crazy in that district and win next year, the ground did not change that much. Nothing in these results suggests Matt Cartwright can sleep through 2018, or that we're going to go pick up insane state house seats. It's going to be really, really hard.

I stand by my very inclusive initial analysis. We did a great job in 2017. We didn't alter the playing field for future generations though.

Why Democrats Won the Lehigh Valley, for Real

Well, it was one great night- probably the best night for Lehigh Valley Democrats since the 2005 County Executive sweep. Now that the dust has settled, we realize that Lamont McClure won a historic blowout of the incumbent County Executive, an eight point win. We now see that Phil Armstrong won a surprisingly easy 5% win against a better funded candidate who started with a substantial name recognition advantage. The wins didn't stop there though. Northampton County Council went from 7-2 Republican to 6-3 Democrat in one night. Democrats won races in Upper Milford, North Whitehall, Palmer, Bethlehem Township, South Whitehall, Bangor, Lower Saucon, and all sorts of other communities that Donald Trump won last year, some substantially. County wide Democrats regularly rolled up numbers in excess of 20,000 in Northampton County, let alone Lehigh County. Ellen Ceisler won both counties in her race for Commonwealth Court, while Maria McLaughlin rolled to a big win in Lehigh County and a strong second place in Northampton. Democrats even got surprisingly easy wins they didn't expect- like the victory of Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski for a fourth term. How?

I've read many theories of what happened, and why we won, and many of them are insightful. I was actually a part of the County Executive campaigns though, and later in coordinating Get-Out-The-Vote efforts in both counties, so I might have a few insights to add here. Here are a few thoughts on what actually happened and why we won.

1. In Northampton County, it's the suburbs, stupid. Palmer Township and Bethlehem Township are the Ohio and Florida of Northampton County- if you win them, you probably win the county. If you lose them? Have a nice day. Lamont McClure won the key areas, and John Brown had a chance. Unions, activists, and candidates alike did a lot of door knocking and calling into Palmer in particular. It paid off.
2. Taxes aren't popular, and we didn't embrace them. Look at the campaigns of both Armstrong and McClure, and look specifically at what they put on those walk pieces and mailers. Neither guy ever voted for a tax increase in office. Both told the public so. Both won. Obviously Democrats are the party of government solving problems, as opposed to doing nothing like the GOP wants, but Democrats cannot be the party of higher taxes and win here. It just won't sell. Fiscal responsibility, being good stewards of the public bill, matters a lot to these voters.
3. Ed Pawlowski embraced "identity politics" in government, and the campaign, and it saved him. Look where Pawlowski won in Allentown. Look where he lost. He won wards with high numbers of Syrians, African-Americans, and Latinos. He lost white wards. Non-white voters stuck by him, despite the indictments, because they believe his agenda and re-development of downtown has been good for them, and they want to see it continue. Had Pawlowski rejected identity politics, and not cultivated the relationships he has with these communities, he would have lost. Period.
4. Negative and Comparative ads work, if you have the money to drive them. Much was made in some "inside ball" circles about the difference in tone between the two County Executive races, and a lot of people in Northampton County were nervous at it. There was no reason to be. Lamont McClure was challenging an incumbent Executive, and he stuck his record to him. He did so repeatedly, in mailer after mailer, and in his TV ad. It worked- he won a commanding 8% win in a county that Donald Trump won in 2016. By comparison, Phil Armstrong never dropped a single negative campaign mailer or ad against Brad Osborne in Lehigh County, nor did Osborne in return. Armstrong won the open-seat race by a surprising 5%. Armstrong did not have the same size campaign war chest, and had he dropped one negative mailer, with no follow-up, it would have backfired. Open races are different than challenge races, and Osborne is a different candidate than Brown. The big key here was that McClure was able to drive a narrative of negative, so it worked. Armstrong had the resources to drive a narrative based on his own common sense record, and since his opponent never went negative at him, it also worked.
5. Women. Dr. Paige Van Wirt (sp?) got about 1,700 write-in votes in Bethlehem. Democratic women lead the way in the judicial races in both counties. Three women won brand new Council/Commissioner races in the two counties. Women did a lot of winning in the Lehigh Valley on Tuesday, because women voters came out and made their voices heard. If you're a male candidate for public office in 2018, my suggestion is that you talk to women- tell them why they should support you. If not, you'll lose.
6. Activism. If I had to pick two groups as MVP's of the election, I'd have to pick Lehigh Valley for All and the East Penn Democrats. These two clubs, both of which not officially the party, but mostly supportive of it, knocked on thousands of doors, staffed polls, and actively engaged up and down the ballot- maximizing the victories. As a manager, sometimes outside groups drive you nuts, because you can't really "control" them, but the work these groups did was critical.
7. Labor. Bodies on the street, financial contributions, sign distribution, and just advising the candidates- they did it all. The Lehigh Valley Labor Council, the Building Trades, and so many of their members took an active role in these campaigns. We would not have won without them, in fact we would have been crushed.
8. Turnout Matters, so does Persuasion. Now for the thing that many people aren't going to want to believe, but need to- Republicans got more votes than they did in 2013. John Brown received more votes in 2017 than he did in 2013, even though he lost this time. Brad Osborne received more votes than Scott Ott four years ago, and he still lost. I would not blow my entire campaign budget on field, for obvious reasons, but I don't think a Democrat can win in this area without some investment in turning out voters- in the right places. In neither county did we just go knock everywhere our hearts desired. We hit the communities we knew could swing either way for weeks. We hit the communities we knew we would win very hard at the end of the election. We won the swing voters, and we won the turnout battle. We won the elections too. Last year, the biggest mistake the Hillary Clinton campaign made was assuming the only thing that mattered was turning out our base vote. You can't win that way, I don't care what your algorithm tells you.
9. Coordination matters. DNC member and Lehigh County resident Murat Guzel pulled together a meeting, about a month before the election, and charged several of us with coordinating the Democratic ticket's "GOTV" efforts. It was a little bit like herding cats, but we managed to basically divide up the turf for each group in the coalition, and the efforts won us a lot of elections. Left all on our own, I don't believe we would have won as much as we did. 
10. Talk about things they care about. Both Democratic County Executive-Elects talked about open space, human services, and elder care- and they won. These are things that fit well within our Democratic values, and we made our case to the public and won. Here's the truth- Democrats shouldn't abandon our values, per se, but we should talk about the values we hold that are relevant to the people voting in the election. Green space is relevant to suburban voters, it's part of why they're there. Schools are relevant to suburban voters, it's part of why they're there. Retirement security and caring for our seniors is relevant to suburban voters, it's part of why they're there. We can and should hold our values dear, but we should also not get caught up in a one-size-fits-all trap, where we aren't addressing the relevant needs of voters in any given area. 
11. Run the tough races. Democrats beat four people who have been on Northampton County Council on Tuesday, and very nearly beat the fifth (we should have). We won races in places we lost substantially last year. Shoaib Chaudhary and Bob Elbich took on very well known, well liked individuals in Lehigh County District races, and while they didn't win, they improved Democratic performance in those areas, which greatly helped the rest of the ticket. If no one ran in Upper Milford, South Whitehall, or North Whitehall, we wouldn't have won those races. Same in Lower Saucon and Bangor. Run the tough races, people appreciate guts.

That's my take on what happened, and what we should learn from this. We did not run a perfect election this year, not by any stretch of the imagination. We should have hit Peg Ferraro for her Electoral College vote for Donald Trump, we may have swept Northampton County Council. If some Democrats wanted Ed Pawlowski out so badly, they should have talked to each other more, and not allowed such large fields to challenge him in both the primary and the general elections. The political tenor in Bethlehem right now is appalling on many levels, and needs to be addressed. The condition of the county parties could certainly use some addressing as well, even if that doesn't mean absolute overhaul. 

But hey, what do I know.