Why Roy Moore Will Probably Win

The Alabama Senate race is the hottest political story in the country right now. Roy Moore was a lightning-rod of a candidate even before the accusations of child molestation became public, and is even more so now. He was twice removed from the Alabama Supreme Court for refusing to follow the law, as handed down from the Federal judiciary. He won his last race, in dark-red Alabama, 52-48%. His opponent, Doug Jones, is a former federal prosecutor who prosecuted the KKK for church bombings. The race is very compelling.

The race is very, very close. RCP shows Jones up by .8%. Huffington Post shows new polls putting Moore back ahead. It's clear that this isn't a normal Republican runaway in Alabama. It is likely to be more like Moore's tight 2012 win for Supreme Court. But- is he really going to lose?

The first thing you need to consider is the demographics. You should expect the African-American share of the Alabama electorate to at least hit 20%. Democrats want that number to be more in the 25-30% range. They also want Doug Jones to get at least 90% of that vote. Let's give them best case- Jones gets 90% of 30%- or 27% of the votes.

If Jones gets that, he will still need a chunk of white votes. He would need a bit more than 33% of the remaining 70% in this scenario. Barack Obama got 15% in 2012. Now, Jones is white, there is a Trump backlash, and his profile as a federal prosecutor isn't bad for this state- but is he going to more than double the Obama vote in Alabama? He was appointed by a Democratic President (Bill Clinton) and he is pro-choice- both of which should hurt him with Alabama white voters. It is possible that he will get just enough votes to win. It's not likely though.

To be clear, the accusations of child rape against Roy Moore have been public for several weeks now- everyone has heard them. Everyone in Alabama who might vote has heard the accusations now, and has had time to digest them. They clearly hurt Roy Moore's standing. He was solidly ahead before- the race is a coin-flip in the polls now. People are saying they are not voting for him now, but they are not saying they are voting for Jones either- at least not enough. Jones is not polling at 50% with any consistency, let alone on the average. If this seems familiar, it's essentially exactly where Hillary Clinton was after the "Access Hollywood" tapes in 2016- some people won't say they are voting for the disgraced Republican, but they haven't switched sides either.

Jones is essentially averaging 47% in the polls. Moore's 2012 opponent got 48%. It appears, from a distance admittedly, that the child rape accusations against Moore have consolidated all of the anti-Moore vote under Jones. If Jones is going to win, this means he will need something different to push him across the line. The accusations currently leveled against Moore aren't going to push Jones up to 50% on their own.

This doesn't mean Moore has won- in fact, there's still a huge variable in this equation called turnout. Could Moore's brand of crazy, combined with the disgrace he is causing the state, and combined with some anti-Trump feeling, push down Republican turnout? Yes it could. Again though, we are working off the best case scenario for Democrats above, African-American turnout surging to 30% of the total electorate- that is not a given. In fact, there are reports that Jones is having trouble motivating African-Americans. If that is the case, he can't win, period. African-American turnout at 20% would mean he has to get 40% of the white vote in Alabama to win this election. I'm sorry, that won't happen. Jones has to win the turnout battle to win this election, under any scenario, even if we are assuming Moore is being hurt already by the accusations against him.

This shocks a lot of people- how can this monster win? If he does, it will force us to confront a lot of ugly truths about the electorate. That's for a different article though. What I think we have to understand now is that a large segment of the population isn't moved by scandals in the press anymore, at least if those scandals are about their own party. Perhaps this is because of organized efforts to discredit the media, perhaps it's about just pure tribalism. I don't know. The reality is that it's more likely than not that Roy Moore will once again defy the media and play the victim card to victory.