What a Campaign Manager Actually Does...

For those of you who read me, you may have guessed that I run campaigns- and you guessed right. I am running several campaigns right now, and it's quite the job. One part of the job that is difficult is dealing with the "armchair quarterbacks" in the local party who have other ideas about what you should be doing. They want you to knock on every door, buy more yard signs, send more mail, put on fun events, and generally do the things they want you to do- which is a natural reaction from the outside looking in. Any manager worth their weight in pony loaf doesn't do those things though, and takes criticisms from the peanut gallery as a result. The manager is almost always right for not biting the apple, but rarely do we tell you why.

The point of elections is to get more votes, not build a party, "change the country," or any of the other things that many activists want to do. Your chief job as a manager is to marshal the available resources and choral them together in the stretch run. This means saying no a lot, and telling people to scale back their grand plans. It means knocking on the doors of people who are actually going to vote, not wasting precious volunteer hours chasing people who vote once every four years. It means not buying more yard signs, just because your opponent has more. It means sending mail to the voters you need to win over, not as many people as you humanly, possibly can. It means making sure your allies and running mates are on message, and not off talking about crazy things that are not a part of your campaign message. It means not getting involved in ballot initiatives that aren't a part of your campaign. It means being selective about what other campaigns you coordinate with, even if it hurts some feelings. In other words, you're not "Mr. Yes." That is not what this job is.

To be clear, this makes campaign staffers, especially managers, different from candidates, activists, and party leaders. You have different needs, different outcomes, and different goals. It means not worrying about always getting credit, because you know chasing credit isn't your job. It means not being everybody's friend all the time.

That's my entire response to what some newcomers to the process have had to say this week.

Trump is More Likely to be Re-Elected Than Have His Election Invalidated

Basically from November 9th of last year on, there has a been a feeling from some on the left that Donald Trump's Presidency is illegitimate, and is not likely to last four years. I can somewhat understand that, as I am fairly certain foul play was a part of his victory in 2016 too, but the outcome we seem to believe will happen, probably will not. In fact, the odds are better that Donald Trump is re-elected and serves eight years than that his election is somehow nullified.

Let me start this by saying what I actually believe will happen- I believe Trump will lose his re-election, losing Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona in 2020. That's the most likely outcome for a President who's approval has fallen into the low 30%'s in some polls- he'll lose all the states he won close in 2016. It's also possible that he'll win though, winning the states he won in 2016 again, and defeating the Democrats a second time. Now, I don't believe it, but hear me out here- the front-runners in any polls that include them right now are Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, and Hillary Clinton. I believe Trump would be highly likely to defeat Sanders, and would be a coin-flip to beat Hillary again. I think he'd be an underdog against Joe Biden, but not hopeless. In short, the Democrats haven't found their next generation superstar yet to bring the party back to the promised land. I'm fairly skeptical about a lot of the names out there too, at the moment. My guess is that the Democrats will find someone solid, or one of the current front-running names will move the needle a bit, but it's plausible that we mess this up and lose again.

I can tell you what will not happen though- Trump's election will not be nullified. That ship sailed when the Electoral College was counted and certified in a joint session of Congress. We have no mechanism by which to do this, so there's very little chance of it happening. If a crime was committed, and the President was removed by Congress, we would go into line of succession, which is terrible right now for Democrats- Pence, Ryan, Hatch, and Tillerson are the next four people in line right now. Congress is run by Republicans, and is highly unlikely to impeach Trump in the House, or remove him with a 67 vote majority in the Senate. It's highly unlikely that they will even have any articles or impeachment or charges from Bob Mueller with which to work before the 2018 mid-terms- special prosecutors take time. Besides, if you're a Democrat, you should want it to take time- a Democratic Speaker of the House could be in place in 2019, if you are removing Trump and Pence. The reality is that this will take a while, and may not come to fruition before the 2020 Election anyway.

In other words, don't get  your hopes up too much.

I Didn't Watch SNL, Despite Jay Z's Performance

For many, many years, Jay Z was my favorite rapper. Many a positive, and negative, personal time in my life was survived on his music. I went and saw him and Beyonce in the run of "first" shows at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. Jay Z is my favorite rapper ever. Or he was at least. I can't even claim that anymore.

I did not watch Jay on Saturday Night Live's season premiere on Saturday. Why? Well, there's two reasons to be honest:

1. I just didn't love this new album he put out. "4:44" just wasn't my favorite Jay Z album. Gone is the guy from Marcy, and in his place is someone apologizing for being Jay Z. I get it: rappers out grow the persona they start out with. They have to, if they are successful. The evolution of Jay Z was inevitable, as was the complaints of cranks like myself.
2. I'm tired of the soap opera that is him, Beyonce, and her sister, and he brought it up on this album. The minute he "co-apologized" for Solange's physical attack on him in the elevator at the Met, I was just kind of not there as a fan anymore. There's no justification for it, regardless of what he did before hand. Then Beyonce had to put out an album about their marriage issues, followed up by this album of his, also addressing the situation. Enough already. Terrible as this is, if I were him, I would have sent divorce papers over the next day and filed charges on Solange, so there's that. I just lost respect for them both after that. 

So, I skipped watching the SNL season premiere, and his performance on Saturday night. I feel kind of weird about that, and I know a lot of folks probably would disagree with me about the situation. I just didn't find much interest here.

Stop Elevating These Clowns

A few months ago I found out who Caitlin Johnstone who was. I promptly blocked her on Twitter. Why? She's a clown. She was still crowing about how Hillary was as bad as Trump, and how Assad wasn't really that bad for the people of Syria. Someone who is this twisted and lost isn't someone I should put much time into. Besides, you're not going to move this person's opinion, so why waste time and intellectual capital on them?

One of the best things about being put on the Berner's "hit list" of "neoliberal shills" was that it brought all the crazies out into the open. Once I got over the "thrill" of arguing with these people, I realized the best thing to do was block them. Block them all. Don't engage them in long conversations. Just block. Some aren't even real people (they're bots), some are just looking to argue with you, and others yet are just convinced you're the devil anyway. You'll end up way down the rabbit hole, with hours gone from your life. They're not worth it.

Of course, Caitlin Johnstone and her ilk don't go away- why you ask? Because too many people do engage them, and social media runs on engagement. So every morning when I read my emails, I see her name and articles in my email from Medium suggesting things to read. Are they anything I want to read? No, unless the headline is so crazy that I want to read it for a laugh. Clearly people that read and interact with me also interact with her too though- so I get her headlines.

My request? Please stop engaging these people. I wish I could tell Medium to stop sending me this garbage, but since that's not plausible, I just need you to not waste your time. Please? Trust me, it'll be good for you too.