The Formula for Democratic Victories

The ground shook Tuesday in Washington, thanks to an election that was hundreds of miles away. Republican Roy Moore lost the Senate race in Alabama, in an absolute shock to our political system. The truth is that a Democrat should almost never be able to win in Alabama, but this was the exception. Roy Moore was accused of pedophilia, and that was enough to drive him to defeat, even in Alabama.

Do not kid yourself- this was as close as it gets. Democrat Doug Jones was elected to the U.S. Senate by under 21,000 votes (at last look), despite the horrible accusations against Moore. Moore was a weak candidate by Alabama standards, a former judge who won his last race for Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court by a 52–48% margin, which had been the closest statewide race Alabama had seen in over a decade before this one. Even so, the horrible accusations against Roy Moore were only enough to pull him down by 4% from his last race. That’s a flip of one of every twenty-five people.

Even so, Democrats should take heart in a lot of things that came out of Doug Jones’ victory. Jones, and his coalition, were the perfect ideal for Democratic victories. Three things in specific happened to achieve this victory. The first, and biggest piece of why Jones won, was an increased African-American turnout. African-Americans, especially African-American women, are the base of the Democratic Party, and they came through huge, again. Second, just enough of the suburban, college educated white population came to the Democratic side. No one is confusing the college-educated white vote in Alabama for liberal and suddenly becoming a bunch of socialists, but Trump’s fall from 71% in the 2016 Election to just below 50% in exit polls in Alabama on Tuesday suggests that these folks moving away just enough for Democrats to win in 2018. Third, Democrats effectively made the argument to down-scale white voters, particularly non-college educated voters, that Roy Moore did not represent them well, and they showed up at a lower level than they did in 2016. There is no doubt that a completely reprehensible pig like Roy Moore played a huge part in all three of these things happening. Jones deserves some credit though. African-American voters viewed him as credible for his record on Civil Rights, while the white college educated voters around Tuscaloosa, Auburn, and in suburban areas of the state gave him a much better showing than Hillary Clinton got in the state last year.

Democratic statewide tickets this year were balanced both demographically and ideologically. Phil Murphy and Sheila Oliver in New Jersey are both solidly progressives, and yet solidly members of the state’s establishment- Murphy was President Obama’s Ambassador to Germany and Oliver was the former Speaker of the Assembly. Ralph Northam, Justin Fairfax, and Mark Herring all took solidly liberal positions on climate change, the minimum wage, and marriage equality, but had establishment chops that gave them credibility- Northam as Lieutenant Governor, Fairfax in President Obama’s DOJ, and Herring as the sitting Attorney General. Doug Jones was understandably more moderate on a number of issues to run in Alabama, but his time as a U.S. Attorney ended up being the strongest selling point to the Democratic base. This year’s statewide candidates ran as solid Democrats for their states, but they also didn’t run as wild-eyed outsiders.

Democrats need to take the right lessons out of these elections. Americans are not ready to embrace us fighting a new revolution, but they are ready for us to represent the states and districts we are running in, and to lead based on our values and convictions. If we can continue to sell this version of the Democratic Party, and embrace the political values of our actual base, 2018 will be a very good year for Democrats.