Trump is More Likely to be Re-Elected Than Have His Election Invalidated

Basically from November 9th of last year on, there has a been a feeling from some on the left that Donald Trump's Presidency is illegitimate, and is not likely to last four years. I can somewhat understand that, as I am fairly certain foul play was a part of his victory in 2016 too, but the outcome we seem to believe will happen, probably will not. In fact, the odds are better that Donald Trump is re-elected and serves eight years than that his election is somehow nullified.

Let me start this by saying what I actually believe will happen- I believe Trump will lose his re-election, losing Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona in 2020. That's the most likely outcome for a President who's approval has fallen into the low 30%'s in some polls- he'll lose all the states he won close in 2016. It's also possible that he'll win though, winning the states he won in 2016 again, and defeating the Democrats a second time. Now, I don't believe it, but hear me out here- the front-runners in any polls that include them right now are Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, and Hillary Clinton. I believe Trump would be highly likely to defeat Sanders, and would be a coin-flip to beat Hillary again. I think he'd be an underdog against Joe Biden, but not hopeless. In short, the Democrats haven't found their next generation superstar yet to bring the party back to the promised land. I'm fairly skeptical about a lot of the names out there too, at the moment. My guess is that the Democrats will find someone solid, or one of the current front-running names will move the needle a bit, but it's plausible that we mess this up and lose again.

I can tell you what will not happen though- Trump's election will not be nullified. That ship sailed when the Electoral College was counted and certified in a joint session of Congress. We have no mechanism by which to do this, so there's very little chance of it happening. If a crime was committed, and the President was removed by Congress, we would go into line of succession, which is terrible right now for Democrats- Pence, Ryan, Hatch, and Tillerson are the next four people in line right now. Congress is run by Republicans, and is highly unlikely to impeach Trump in the House, or remove him with a 67 vote majority in the Senate. It's highly unlikely that they will even have any articles or impeachment or charges from Bob Mueller with which to work before the 2018 mid-terms- special prosecutors take time. Besides, if you're a Democrat, you should want it to take time- a Democratic Speaker of the House could be in place in 2019, if you are removing Trump and Pence. The reality is that this will take a while, and may not come to fruition before the 2020 Election anyway.

In other words, don't get  your hopes up too much.