10 Hard Truths About the Democratic Party

Democrats have been fighting since Donald Trump's election in November- and that is good. You'll see a lot of Democratic activists try to say it's time to "stop fighting" about the 2016 Primary season, divisions within the party, and anything that pushes us away from supposed "unity." You shouldn't listen to those people, they have no idea what they are talking about. This infighting is good- it gives us shape as to who we are, it makes us contemplate what each other are saying, and it gives us a better sense of our weaknesses. Eight years ago, Republicans were having these same types of fights, between their establishment wing and Tea Party activists, fights that spilled over into nasty primaries, some of which even hurt their general election cause- and they won north of 60 seats in the House, seats in the Senate, and all the Governorships and state houses they used to gerrymander the map against us for the past eight years. Oh, and they did so after losing every House special election contested in 2009- really. Republicans had no cohesive message, massive divisions, were losing elections like crazy, and even nominated some lunatics- and they still won in 2010. None of this infighting is going to hurt the Democratic Party in 2018. The 2018 mid-term election will be a test of motivation and how the public feels about the Trump era. Democrats are the schleps who happen to be on the ballot. Our job is to get people to run, make them raise money, and turn the volunteer energy into volunteer work- if we do that, 2018 will take care of itself, regardless of this stuff.

So, with that in mind, I think it's time for a little self-examination. It's time for an honest discussion about the Democratic Party, what it is, what it can do, and where we go. So, I offer ten unsolicited, stone cold truths about our party to move forward with:

1. The Democratic Party is a coalition, the Republican Party is a political party- The Democratic Party is a collection of people who arrive at the party because of their issue of interest and then hopefully at least tolerate the rest. Our interest groups don't always agree with, or even like each other. Our coalition partnership all thinks their issue is the top issue of the moment, must be fought for, and is the great moral battle of the day. For that reason, we spend a lot of time talking over each other, and our voters tend to hold our nominees for office to a much higher standard. While there seems to be no intelligent reason that social conservatives and big business acolytes agree with "big military" Republicans, most of their base swallows the platform whole. Republicans just accepted Donald Trump. The Democratic voters struggled to unite behind a former First Lady, U.S. Senator, and Secretary of State. It's just a lot harder to manage a coalition than a political party.
2. Our base is not white liberals and college kids- The base of the Democratic Party backed Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in the 2008 and 2016 primaries. The base of the Democratic Party is African-Americans (especially women), Latinos, LGBT people, and women- not white liberals. This is not to say that one Democratic voter is more important than the next, it's to say that we have to represent our base, and to represent that base, we have to know who they are. This is why civil rights policies are not something we can pick and choose when to support in 2017. This is why we can't "kinda accept racism." It's also why we can't listen to Bernie Sanders, and drop the damn identity politics- that would mean literally putting the base of our party on the back burner. Look, not everything can be fixed by economics- American society doesn't work that way.
3. Democrats win the White House in times of perceived crisis lately, and not any other times- When LBJ left Washington, so did the era of Democratic dominance that had begun with FDR. Since then, Democrats have won the White House with exactly three men. Jimmy Carter won the White House in 1976 in the aftermath of the national crisis that was Watergate. Bill Clinton won the White House in 1992, in the aftermath of a recession. Barack Obama won the White House in 2008, in the midst of an economic meltdown and the Iraq War. See a pattern? Americans elect Democrats when there is a crisis to solve, but don't really gravitate towards their brand in any other times. They don't trust them to, or want them to govern on the norm.
4. The Democratic base is not big enough to win elections, and won't be for years- So remember the part above about who our base is? Our base is not big enough to win national elections. Our base is concentrated in big urban centers, which is the worst distribution of votes possible in our system. They simply don't live in enough Congressional districts to win Congress, which is why we've held the House for four (4) of the last twenty-three (23) years. It's not going to get any better either. In 20 years, 70% of America will be represented by 30 Senators. As long as such a large chunk of our voters continue to live in California, New York, Chicago, and the coasts in general, a base only strategy of mobilization won't win us Congress. It also won't win us the White House. Notice that we have twice this century already won the popular vote and lost the Presidency- that's about to get more common if we don't add new people to our coalition. Democrats must pick some group of voters they don't win now, and bring them into the fold, otherwise we're just going to be a minority party in Congress, and stuck in tight Presidential races forever.
5. Our policies are a lot more popular than they are electable- Just about every Democratic position polls well. Democrats always win policy. People don't care about policy. Trump's Rust Belt voters cited crime and immigration as their top reasons to vote for Trump- two things that don't actually need fixing in 2017. Democrats used to win issue polling on health care, until the details rolled out on the Affordable Care Act. They won on climate change at that time too, until the costs of Cap and Trade were brought into the debate. There's no reason to believe rolling out bold new policies- like single-payer or free college- will win elections. Oh sure, they poll good. So did John Kerry's plan for health care, and Barack Obama's plan, and every Democrats plan- until they were up for debate. Americans want us to solve problems using Democratic principles, but they don't really want to pay more taxes to do it. It is a quagmire that shouldn't make us stop putting forth policies, but should make us consider if we need to really think bigger- as in the role, scope, and actual functions of the government. Democrats need to start making their own case on tax policy, budgeting, and what we spend on- and stop fighting piece meal on each issue, because while we "win" those issues in the polls, we don't turn those into electoral of governing victories beyond those polls.
6. We only win when we're "excited" by our nominee- Barack Obama was exciting. Bill Clinton was cool. They're charming guys, people that excite us in some way. Al Gore, John Kerry, and Hillary Clinton were all boring and smart. Guess who Democratic voters came out in droves to vote for? Look, it's fine that you want a rock star, but Bill and Barack are once in a generation kind of talent. We compare all kinds of up and comers to them all the time, and 90% of them flop. You can't just vote for progress when you're excited by the package it comes in, you have to do it all the time. ALL.THE.TIME.
7. We are not a European Socialist Party- One of the frustrations of progressives is that Democrats don't always support the policy choices they do, particularly on economic policies. The reason for that is simple- not everyone is a Democrat because of economic issues. It's true, this was the driver of Democratic Party goals in the FDR/Truman era, but a lot has changed since then. Some people are in the party because of economic issues, that is true. Some are in the party because of Civil Rights, or the environment, or women's rights, or any number of different issues. They may not be willing to go as far left as economic progressives, and economic progressives may not be as interested in "identity" issues. We're not French Socialists here, the ideological reasons for voters backing us are not that pure.
8. Demographics are not necessarily destiny- In 1960, Catholics were solidly Democratic. In 2016, Donald Trump won them. Electoral preferences change over time, and the basic assumption- that a less white future America is more Democratic- is full of potential pitfalls. While the country is growing less white right now, the elected government is more white conservative than any we have ever seen. Our system is a republic, not a democracy, and weird things happen in republics. Our future actually has to happen, so we have to hold onto our base of voters, while organizing them around our principles and values, if we expect to win future elections because of demographics. A lot can happen there.
9. We vote against our economic interests too- Ok, we bury lower-income whites for voting Republican, but can we be honest a minute? Manhattan is super rich, and super Democratic, and it really doesn't make any sense that they vote for a party that is going to increase regulations on their industry and raise their taxes. Or, at least it makes as much sense as West Virginia voting Republican. People vote their values over their economics, and that sometimes doesn't make sense. That goes both ways.
10. Bernie? Hillary? 2020? Um- I'm on the record up top saying that I think the fights about 2016 are good for the party. I do believe that. I don't believe that Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders are likely to be the 2020 nominee for President, nor am I certain either would be good for the future. Both are going to be well north of 70. We'd be re-hashing past battles, instead of fighting future ones. I do expect 2020 to be an election that will be fought more on foreign policy than 2016 was, and many of the names being debated right now don't make a ton of sense in that light. Does this mean neither has a chance, or should be disqualified from the start? No. It does mean to me though that some fresh faces, or even just other old faces, would be good. Put me down right now as wanting a "Plan C" to emerge.

Now, with all of that stated, I have to acknowledge something- I'm the unicorn I say doesn't exist. I'm a white, straight, Catholic, suburban-raised male that votes Democratic all the time. I'm pro-labor, and I believe in raising wages, fighting inequality, and progressive tax reform. I'm an environmentalist, and want to see a new direction in our energy policy and on fighting climate change. I'm probably most driven at this point in my life by being pro-diversity- basically against the nativists and bigots who look like me. I'm ideologically pretty progressive. My main point is that most of the country is not. They live rather regular lives, and aren't so caught up in the battles of feminist Democrats vs. Socialist Democrats. We are a party that is very out of touch right now, and very hung up on our ivory tower debates. Our focus should be on helping people improve their lives. More people in affordable housing, in a good paying job, not facing discrimination and hate in their every day lives, and having access to affordable health care- not worrying about perfect purity with our ideological wants. Progress beats regression, even if you have to compromise with yourself a bit to get there.